US recession by end of 2026?

Traders currently price "No" at 90% for "US recession by end of 2026?". The market has traded $1.7M in total volume and resolves Jan 31, 2027. Recent U.S. economic data have reinforced trader expectations of avoiding a recession through year-end 2026, underpinning the 87.5% market-implied probability on “No.” The Sahm Rule indicator stands at just 0.10 as of May 2026, well below its 0.50 recession threshold, while the New York Fed’s yield-curve model places 12-month recession risk near 15%. Forecasters project real GDP growth near 2.2% for the year, supported by resilient consumer spending, a stable unemployment rate around 4.5%, and fiscal tailwinds from tax cuts that outweigh tariff-related pressures. With only six months remaining until resolution, the absence of sharp deteriorations in employment or output has kept downside risks contained despite mixed inflation readings, aligning trader consensus with these fundamentals.

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