US recession by end of 2026?

Traders currently price "No" at 92% for "US recession by end of 2026?". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved down 0.5 points. The market has traded $1.7M in total volume and resolves Dec 31, 2026. Strong economic momentum and a resilient labor market have anchored the 92% market-implied odds against a US recession by year-end 2026. Steady GDP expansion above trend, unemployment near historic lows, and inflation trending toward the Federal Reserve’s 2% target have reinforced trader consensus on a soft landing. With the Fed funds rate expected to remain accommodative, market participants see limited near-term downside risks through the remaining months. Still, potential shocks from geopolitical escalation, renewed inflation pressures, or sharp equity corrections could alter the trajectory before December 31.

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