PREDICTION MARKETS · VIA POLYMARKET
26 live market signals.
The events that move markets — Fed decisions, recession, inflation, crypto milestones — priced in real time by traders with money on the line. A money-weighted read on what the crowd is betting, not just saying. Odds sourced from Polymarket.
ODDS UPDATED Jul 9, 13:23 UTC · AUTO-REFRESHES THROUGH THE DAY
26 live
POLITICSFLAT 24H
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
Gavin Newsom18%
- Gavin Newsom
- 18%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
- 15%
- Jon Ossoff
- 12%
VOL $1229.0MENDS Nov 7, 2028
POLITICSFLAT 24H
Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.49%
- Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
- 49%
- J.D. Vance
- 41%
- Marco Rubio
- 25%
VOL $670.9MENDS Nov 7, 2028
POLITICSFLAT 24H
Presidential Election Winner 2028
JD Vance20%
- JD Vance
- 20%
- Marco Rubio
- 14%
- Gavin Newsom
- 12%
VOL $652.8MENDS Nov 7, 2028
POLITICSFLAT 24H
Brazil Presidential Election
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva62%
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
- 62%
- Flávio Bolsonaro
- 23%
- Renan Santos
- 9%
VOL $111.4MENDS Oct 4, 2026
POLITICS▲ 2.1pt 24H
Next French Presidential Election
Marine Le Pen27%
- Marine Le Pen
- 27%
- Édouard Philippe
- 26%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon
- 12%
VOL $110.6MENDS Apr 30, 2027
FED / RATES▲ 4.0pt 24H
Fed Decision in July?
No change82%
- No change
- 82%
- 25 bps increase
- 18%
- 25 bps decrease
- 1%
VOL $47.7MENDS Jul 29, 2026
FED / RATES▲ 1.4pt 24H
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
0 (0 bps)79%
- 0 (0 bps)
- 79%
- 1 (25 bps)
- 16%
- 2 (50 bps)
- 3%
VOL $41.3MENDS Dec 31, 2026
POLITICSFLAT 24H
California Governor Election Winner
Xavier Becerra94%
- Xavier Becerra
- 94%
- Steve Hilton
- 6%
- Chad Bianco
- 0%
VOL $40.2MENDS Nov 3, 2026
POLITICS▼ 2.0pt 24H
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
No84%
- No
- 84%
- Yes
- 17%
VOL $40.1MENDS Dec 31, 2026
POLITICSFLAT 24H
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
No96%
- No
- 96%
- Yes
- 4%
VOL $38.2MENDS Dec 31, 2026
CRYPTOFLAT 24H
When will Bitcoin hit $150k?
by December 31, 20264%
- by December 31, 2026
- 4%
- by September 30, 2025
- 0%
- by December 31, 2025
- 0%
VOL $27.0MENDS Jan 1, 2027
POLITICS▼ 0.9pt 24H
Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
Gadi Eizenkot40%
- Gadi Eizenkot
- 40%
- Benjamin Netanyahu
- 37%
- Naftali Bennett
- 13%
VOL $26.3MENDS Dec 31, 2026
POLITICSFLAT 24H
Iran leader end of 2026?
Mojtaba Khamenei83%
- Mojtaba Khamenei
- 83%
- Reza Pahlavi
- 3%
- Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf
- 3%
VOL $19.9MENDS Dec 31, 2026
POLITICS▲ 0.5pt 24H
Iran leadership change by...?
June 30, 202726%
- June 30, 2027
- 26%
- December 31
- 17%
- September 30
- 10%
VOL $19.3MENDS Dec 31, 2026
POLITICS▼ 1.0pt 24H
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?
December 3114%
- December 31
- 14%
- October 31
- 9%
- August 31
- 4%
VOL $17.2MENDS Dec 31, 2026
CRYPTOFLAT 24H
Bitcoin all time high by ___?
December 31, 20264%
- December 31, 2026
- 4%
- September 30, 2026
- 2%
- March 31, 2026
- 0%
VOL $9.2MENDS Jan 1, 2027
FED / RATES▼ 0.7pt 24H
What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?
3.75%36%
- 3.75%
- 36%
- 4.0%
- 26%
- 4.25%
- 20%
VOL $6.7MENDS Dec 9, 2026
CRYPTOFLAT 24H
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?
No93%
- No
- 93%
- Yes
- 7%
VOL $4.4MENDS Jan 1, 2027
FED / RATES▼ 5.0pt 24H
Fed rate hike in 2026?
Yes53%
- Yes
- 53%
- No
- 48%
VOL $3.6MENDS Dec 9, 2026
CRYPTOFLAT 24H
Ethereum all time high by ___?
December 31, 20265%
- December 31, 2026
- 5%
- September 30, 2026
- 1%
- March 31, 2026
- 0%
VOL $2.3MENDS Jan 1, 2027
FED / RATES▲ 1.0pt 24H
Fed Decision in September?
No change57%
- No change
- 57%
- 25 bps increase
- 37%
- 25 bps decrease
- 4%
VOL $2.1MENDS Sep 16, 2026
MACROFLAT 24H
US recession by end of 2026?
No90%
- No
- 90%
- Yes
- 11%
VOL $1.7MENDS Jan 31, 2027
CRYPTOFLAT 24H
Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by...?
December 3134%
- December 31
- 34%
- March 31
- 0%
- June 30
- 0%
VOL $1.2MENDS Jan 1, 2027
CRYPTOFLAT 24H
Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?
No97%
- No
- 97%
- Yes
- 3%
VOL $1.0MENDS Dec 31, 2026
FED / RATES▲ 5.0pt 24H
Fed rate hike by...?
October Meeting47%
- October Meeting
- 47%
- September Meeting
- 44%
- July Meeting
- 19%
VOL $924KENDS Oct 29, 2026
CRYPTO▲ 1.0pt 24H
Bitcoin vs. Gold vs. S&P 500 in 2026
S&P 50070%
- S&P 500
- 70%
- Gold
- 20%
- Bitcoin
- 13%
VOL $863KENDS Dec 31, 2026
Probabilities sourced live from Polymarket prediction markets, refreshed through the day. Prediction-market participation carries risk and may be restricted in your jurisdiction. Informational only — not investment advice.