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68 live · 7 settled
POLITICS▲ 2.8pt 24H
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez21%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
- 21%
- Jon Ossoff
- 15%
- Gavin Newsom
- 15%
VOL $1266.1MENDS Nov 7, 2028
POLITICS▲ 1.7pt 24H
Presidential Election Winner 2028
JD Vance23%
- JD Vance
- 23%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
- 14%
- Marco Rubio
- 11%
VOL $691.8MENDS Nov 7, 2028
POLITICSFLAT 24H
Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.49%
- Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
- 49%
- J.D. Vance
- 47%
- Marco Rubio
- 20%
VOL $690.5MENDS Nov 7, 2028
POLITICS▼ 1.0pt 24H
Brazil Presidential Election
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva63%
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
- 63%
- Flávio Bolsonaro
- 33%
- Renan Santos
- 3%
VOL $131.6MENDS Oct 4, 2026
POLITICSFLAT 24H
Next French Presidential Election
Marine Le Pen32%
- Marine Le Pen
- 32%
- Édouard Philippe
- 25%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon
- 13%
VOL $121.0MENDS Apr 30, 2027
POLITICSFLAT 24H
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
No84%
- No
- 84%
- Yes
- 17%
VOL $59.4MENDS Dec 31, 2026
FED / RATESFLAT 24H
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
0 (0 bps)86%
- 0 (0 bps)
- 86%
- 1 (25 bps)
- 10%
- 2 (50 bps)
- 3%
VOL $49.4MENDS Dec 31, 2026
FED / RATESFLAT 24H
Fed Decision in September?
No change69%
- No change
- 69%
- 25 bps increase
- 31%
- 25 bps decrease
- 1%
VOL $47.9MENDS Sep 16, 2026
POLITICSFLAT 24H
California Governor Election Winner
Xavier Becerra95%
- Xavier Becerra
- 95%
- Steve Hilton
- 5%
- Tom Steyer
- 0%
VOL $40.8MENDS Nov 3, 2026
POLITICSFLAT 24H
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
No96%
- No
- 96%
- Yes
- 4%
VOL $40.0MENDS Dec 31, 2026
POLITICSFLAT 24H
Iran leader end of 2026?
Mojtaba Khamenei83%
- Mojtaba Khamenei
- 83%
- No Head of State
- 4%
- Reza Pahlavi
- 3%
VOL $38.8MENDS Dec 31, 2026
POLITICSFLAT 24H
Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
Gadi Eizenkot57%
- Gadi Eizenkot
- 57%
- Benjamin Netanyahu
- 27%
- Naftali Bennett
- 6%
VOL $32.9MENDS Dec 31, 2026
POLITICS▲ 0.5pt 24H
Israel closes its airspace by...?
September 309%
- September 30
- 9%
- August 31
- 2%
- May 8
- 0%
VOL $27.3MENDS Oct 1, 2026
CRYPTO▲ 1.0pt 24H
When will Bitcoin hit $150k?
by December 31, 202766%
- by December 31, 2027
- 66%
- by September 30, 2027
- 28%
- by June 30, 2027
- 15%
VOL $27.2MENDS Jan 1, 2027
POLITICSFLAT 24H
Iran leadership change by...?
June 30, 202725%
- June 30, 2027
- 25%
- December 31
- 16%
- November 30
- 10%
VOL $24.0MENDS Jul 1, 2027
POLITICSFLAT 24H
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by...?
December 315%
- December 31
- 5%
- June 30
- 0%
- January 31
- 0%
VOL $21.8MENDS Jan 1, 2027
POLITICSFLAT 24H
Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
United Russia (ER)70%
- United Russia (ER)
- 70%
- New People (NL)
- 23%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)
- 5%
VOL $21.6MENDS Sep 20, 2026
POLITICS▲ 1.0pt 24H
Putin out as President of Russia by...?
June 30, 202714%
- June 30, 2027
- 14%
- December 31, 2026
- 8%
- September 30, 2026
- 2%
VOL $21.5MENDS Jul 1, 2027
POLITICSFLAT 24H
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?
December 318%
- December 31
- 8%
- October 31
- 3%
- August 31
- 0%
VOL $17.8MENDS Jan 1, 2027
POLITICSFLAT 24H
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?
December 3110%
- December 31
- 10%
- November 30
- 6%
- October 31
- 4%
VOL $16.1MENDS Jan 1, 2027
POLITICSFLAT 24H
Los Angeles Mayoral Election
Karen Bass65%
- Karen Bass
- 65%
- Nithya Raman
- 35%
- Rick Caruso
- 0%
VOL $13.4MENDS Dec 31, 2026
POLITICSFLAT 24H
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?
No97%
- No
- 97%
- Yes
- 3%
VOL $11.7MENDS Dec 31, 2026
POLITICS▼ 1.0pt 24H
Trump out as President before 2027?
No94%
- No
- 94%
- Yes
- 7%
VOL $11.0MENDS Dec 31, 2026
POLITICS▲ 0.5pt 24H
Next round of US-Iran peace talks by...?
March 31, 202767%
- March 31, 2027
- 67%
- December 31, 2026
- 51%
- September 30, 2026
- 26%
VOL $9.9MENDS Apr 1, 2027
CRYPTOFLAT 24H
Bitcoin all time high by ___?
December 31, 20268%
- December 31, 2026
- 8%
- September 30, 2026
- 3%
- March 31, 2026
- 0%
VOL $9.7MENDS Jan 1, 2027
POLITICS▼ 1.5pt 24H
Iran full airspace closure by...?
December 3127%
- December 31
- 27%
- September 30
- 11%
- August 31
- 3%
VOL $8.6MENDS Jan 1, 2027
POLITICSFLAT 24H
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?
December 3110%
- December 31
- 10%
- September 30
- 2%
- August 31
- 0%
VOL $8.4MENDS Jan 1, 2027
FED / RATES▼ 1.0pt 24H
Fed rate hike in 2026?
Yes55%
- Yes
- 55%
- No
- 46%
VOL $7.9MENDS Dec 9, 2026
POLITICSFLAT 24H
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by...?
December 314%
- December 31
- 4%
- March 31
- 0%
- April 30
- 0%
VOL $7.8MENDS Jan 1, 2027
POLITICSFLAT 24H
How many different countries will Israel strike in 2026?
476%
- 4
- 76%
- 5
- 15%
- 6
- 7%
VOL $7.4MENDS Dec 31, 2026
POLITICS▲ 2.0pt 24H
US military action against Cuba by...?
December 3119%
- December 31
- 19%
- January 31
- 0%
- March 31
- 0%
VOL $7.3MENDS Jan 1, 2027
FED / RATES▲ 0.5pt 24H
What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?
3.75%42%
- 3.75%
- 42%
- 4.0%
- 32%
- 4.25%
- 13%
VOL $6.8MENDS Dec 9, 2026
POLITICSFLAT 24H
Will US withdraw from NATO by...?
December 313%
- December 31
- 3%
- August 31
- 0%
- June 30
- 0%
VOL $6.3MENDS Jan 1, 2027
POLITICSFLAT 24H
Russia nuclear test by...?
December 31, 20266%
- December 31, 2026
- 6%
- September 30, 2026
- 2%
- November 30
- 0%
VOL $6.2MENDS Jan 1, 2027
POLITICS▼ 0.5pt 24H
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?
June 30, 202756%
- June 30, 2027
- 56%
- March 31, 2027
- 41%
- December 31
- 23%
VOL $6.0MENDS Jul 1, 2027
POLITICSFLAT 24H
NATO x Russia military clash by...?
December 3126%
- December 31
- 26%
- October 31
- 15%
- August 31
- 4%
VOL $5.9MENDS Jan 1, 2027
POLITICSFLAT 24H
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place
Flávio Bolsonaro85%
- Flávio Bolsonaro
- 85%
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
- 5%
- Renan Santos
- 4%
VOL $5.2MENDS Oct 4, 2026
POLITICS▼ 6.3pt 24H
Where will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be...?
No Meeting by September 3074%
- No Meeting by September 30
- 74%
- Switzerland
- 10%
- Qatar
- 5%
VOL $5.1MENDS Sep 30, 2026
CRYPTOFLAT 24H
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?
No95%
- No
- 95%
- Yes
- 5%
VOL $4.9MENDS Jan 1, 2027
POLITICS▼ 1.5pt 24H
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by...?
December 3114%
- December 31
- 14%
- October 31
- 0%
- December 31
- 0%
VOL $4.1MENDS Jan 1, 2027
POLITICS▼ 1.0pt 24H
Which party will win the Senate in 2026?
Democratic Party50%
- Democratic Party
- 50%
- Republican Party
- 50%
VOL $4.0MENDS Nov 3, 2026
POLITICS▲ 1.0pt 24H
Next Prime Minister of Sweden
Magdalena Andersson90%
- Magdalena Andersson
- 90%
- Ulf Kristersson
- 9%
- Elisabeth Thand Ringqvist
- 1%
VOL $3.9MENDS Sep 13, 2026
POLITICSFLAT 24H
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by...?
June 30, 202712%
- June 30, 2027
- 12%
- December 31
- 6%
- June 30
- 0%
VOL $3.7MENDS Jul 1, 2027
POLITICS▲ 1.0pt 24H
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?
No72%
- No
- 72%
- Yes
- 28%
VOL $3.7MENDS Nov 3, 2026
POLITICS▼ 3.0pt 24H
Will Hamas agree to disarm by...?
December 31, 202627%
- December 31, 2026
- 27%
- December 31
- 0%
- November 30
- 0%
VOL $3.6MENDS Jan 1, 2027
POLITICS▲ 0.5pt 24H
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by...?
December 31, 20269%
- December 31, 2026
- 9%
- June 30, 2026
- 0%
VOL $3.5MENDS Jan 1, 2027
POLITICSFLAT 24H
Next Prime Minister of Romania?
Alexandru Nazare47%
- Alexandru Nazare
- 47%
- Sorin Grindeanu
- 18%
- Ilie Bolojan
- 7%
VOL $3.3MENDS Dec 31, 2026
POLITICS▲ 10.0pt 24H
Berlin State Election Winner
Linke59%
- Linke
- 59%
- CDU
- 26%
- AfD
- 10%
VOL $3.3MENDS Sep 20, 2026
POLITICSFLAT 24H
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?
No93%
- No
- 93%
- Yes
- 8%
VOL $3.3MENDS Dec 31, 2026
POLITICSFLAT 24H
Russia Parliamentary Election Winner
United Russia (ER)99%
- United Russia (ER)
- 99%
- Yabloko
- 0%
- Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF)
- 0%
VOL $3.3MENDS Sep 20, 2026
POLITICSFLAT 24H
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?
No92%
- No
- 92%
- Yes
- 8%
VOL $3.2MENDS Dec 31, 2026
FED / RATES▼ 1.0pt 24H
Fed rate cut by...?
December Meeting12%
- December Meeting
- 12%
- October Meeting
- 4%
- September Meeting
- 1%
VOL $3.2MENDS Jan 8, 2027
POLITICS▼ 0.5pt 24H
Will Hezbollah disarm by...?
December 318%
- December 31
- 8%
- March 31
- 0%
- April 30
- 0%
VOL $3.1MENDS Dec 31, 2026
POLITICS▼ 1.0pt 24H
Will Russia capture Lyman by...?
December 3138%
- December 31
- 38%
- September 30
- 7%
- May 31
- 0%
VOL $2.9MENDS Jan 1, 2027
TECH / AIFLAT 24H
AI bubble burst by...?
December 31, 202612%
- December 31, 2026
- 12%
- March 31, 2026
- 0%
- December 31, 2025
- 0%
VOL $2.9MENDS Jan 1, 2027
TECH / AI▲ 2.0pt 24H
OpenAI IPO by...?
December 31, 202618%
- December 31, 2026
- 18%
- September 30, 2026
- 1%
- August 31, 2026
- 0%
VOL $2.9MENDS Dec 31, 2026
CRYPTO▼ 2.8pt 24H
Ethereum all time high by ___?
December 31, 20267%
- December 31, 2026
- 7%
- September 30, 2026
- 3%
- March 31, 2026
- 0%
VOL $2.4MENDS Jan 1, 2027
FED / RATES▼ 1.0pt 24H
Fed rate hike by...?
October Meeting41%
- October Meeting
- 41%
- September Meeting
- 31%
- April Meeting
- 0%
VOL $2.3MENDS Oct 29, 2026
TECH / AI▲ 1.0pt 24H
OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
No IPO by December 31, 202682%
- No IPO by December 31, 2026
- 82%
- 1.5T+
- 6%
- 750B–1T
- 5%
VOL $2.0MENDS Jan 1, 2027
MACRO▲ 1.0pt 24H
US recession by end of 2026?
No93%
- No
- 93%
- Yes
- 8%
VOL $1.7MENDS Dec 31, 2026
TECH / AI▼ 0.5pt 24H
Anthropic IPO by __?
December 31, 202684%
- December 31, 2026
- 84%
- October 31, 2026
- 62%
- September 30, 2026
- 12%
VOL $1.6MENDS Jul 1, 2027
CRYPTO▲ 2.0pt 24H
Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by...?
December 3182%
- December 31
- 82%
- March 31
- 0%
- June 30
- 0%
VOL $1.2MENDS Jan 1, 2027
TECH / AI▲ 5.0pt 24H
Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by...?
October 3170%
- October 31
- 70%
- September 30
- 40%
- September 15
- 29%
VOL $1.1MENDS Nov 1, 2026
TECH / AI▲ 4.5pt 24H
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by...?
December 31, 202741%
- December 31, 2027
- 41%
- June 30, 2027
- 31%
- February 28, 2027
- 23%
VOL $1.1MENDS Jan 1, 2028
CRYPTOFLAT 24H
Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?
No98%
- No
- 98%
- Yes
- 2%
VOL $1.1MENDS Dec 31, 2026
CRYPTOFLAT 24H
Bitcoin vs. Gold vs. S&P 500 in 2026
S&P 50058%
- S&P 500
- 58%
- Gold
- 25%
- Bitcoin
- 16%
VOL $898KENDS Dec 31, 2026
MACROFLAT 24H
China Annual GDP Growth 2026
4.0–5.0%89%
- 4.0–5.0%
- 89%
- 5.0–6.0%
- 8%
- 3.0–4.0%
- 1%
VOL $881KENDS Jan 31, 2027
CRYPTOFLAT 24H
Solana all time high by ___?
December 31, 20263%
- December 31, 2026
- 3%
- September 30, 2026
- 1%
- March 31, 2026
- 0%
VOL $822KENDS Jan 1, 2027
// SETTLED (7)
POLITICSSETTLED
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by...? (2 week pause)
August 3163%
- August 31
- 63%
- August 14
- 48%
- July 31
- 20%
VOL $9.9MRESOLVED Aug 31, 2026
POLITICSSETTLED
Florida Governor Republican Primary Winner
Byron Donalds99%
- Byron Donalds
- 99%
- James Fishback
- 1%
- Jay Collins
- 0%
VOL $4.8MRESOLVED Aug 18, 2026
CRYPTOSETTLED
What price will Bitcoin hit August 3-9?
↑ 64,000100%
- ↑ 64,000
- 100%
- ↑ 76,000
- 0%
- ↑ 74,000
- 0%
VOL $1.6MRESOLVED Aug 10, 2026
CRYPTOSETTLED
What price will Solana hit in July?
↑ 80100%
- ↑ 80
- 100%
- ↓ 70
- 1%
- ↑ 80
- 0%
VOL $1.2MRESOLVED Aug 1, 2026
CRYPTOSETTLED
What price will XRP hit in July?
↓ 1.004%
- ↓ 1.00
- 4%
- ↑ 3.00
- 0%
- ↑ 2.80
- 0%
VOL $1.0MRESOLVED Aug 1, 2026
POLITICSSETTLED
Iran announces withdrawal from MOU negotiations by...?
August 1513%
- August 15
- 13%
- July 31
- 0%
- June 26
- 0%
VOL $8.7MRESOLVED Jul 31, 2026
FED / RATESSETTLED
Fed decisions (Apr-Jul)
Pause–Pause–Pause100%
- Pause–Pause–Pause
- 100%
- Cut–Pause–Pause
- 0%
- Cut–Pause–Cut
- 0%
VOL $929KRESOLVED Jul 29, 2026
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