Highest temperature in Toronto on July 15?
- 28°C or below
- 100%
- +98.8
- 29°C
- 0%
- −1.6
- 30°C
- 0%
- −2.9
- 31°C
- 0%
- −19.4
- 32°C
- 0%
- −37.5
- 33°C
- 0%
- −31.4
- 34°C
- 0%
- −8.5
- 35°C
- 0%
- −0.8
- 36°C
- 0%
- −0.5
- 37°C
- 0%
- —
- 38°C or higher
- 0%
- —
Traders currently price "28°C or below" at 100% for "Highest temperature in Toronto on July 15?". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved up 98.8 points. Full distribution: 28°C or below 100%, 29°C 0%, 30°C 0%, 31°C 0%. The market has traded $90K in total volume and resolves Jul 15, 2026. Official forecasts from Environment and Climate Change Canada currently project a high of 32°C for Toronto on July 15 under a mix of sun and cloud, anchoring the narrow lead for that outcome in market-implied odds. Ensemble models show modest spread around this value, with potential afternoon heating limited by variable cloud cover and a low risk of scattered showers that could suppress the daily maximum. Historical July climatology places average highs near 27–28°C, so the current setup reflects above-normal warmth driven by a ridge of high pressure. Traders weigh these factors against small uncertainties in boundary-layer mixing and urban heat effects that could nudge readings to 31°C or 33°C, with new model runs and updated guidance expected to refine probabilities before resolution.
Odds sourced live from Polymarket, refreshed through the day. Prediction-market participation carries risk and may be restricted in your jurisdiction. Informational only — not investment advice.