Netanyahu out by...?

Traders currently price "December 31" at 37% for "Netanyahu out by...?". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved up 1.0 points. Full distribution: December 31 37%, July 31 0%, May 31 0%, March 31 0%. The market has traded $123.5M in total volume and resolves Dec 31, 2026. Netanyahu remains Israel's prime minister ahead of legislative elections scheduled by late October 2026, with the Knesset advancing dissolution proceedings amid coalition strains over ultra-Orthodox military exemptions and budget issues. Recent polls show Likud as the largest single party, though opposition blocs led by figures such as Naftali Bennett and Gadi Eisenkot have narrowed or overtaken his coalition in some surveys, reflecting voter fatigue from prolonged conflicts in Gaza, Lebanon, and Iran. Netanyahu has signaled intent to seek another term and influence the election timeline, while public statements emphasize security achievements against Iran and Hezbollah. Traders weigh risks of post-election losses or coalition realignments against his history of navigating fragmented Knesset arithmetic; key near-term catalysts include final election date confirmation and any late shifts in northern voter sentiment or U.S.-Iran diplomacy.

Odds sourced live from Polymarket, refreshed through the day. Prediction-market participation carries risk and may be restricted in your jurisdiction. Informational only — not investment advice.