Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)

Traders currently price "Starmer - UK PM" at 99% for "Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)". Full distribution: Starmer - UK PM 99%, Petro - Colombia President 0%, Díaz-Canel - Cuba President 0%, Netanyahu - Israel PM 0%. The market has traded $65.5M in total volume and resolves Dec 31, 2026. Gustavo Petro leads at 51.5% due to Colombia’s fixed presidential term ending with successor inauguration on August 7, 2026, after the May–June elections, creating a scheduled exit independent of approval ratings. Keir Starmer follows at 30.5% amid sustained negative favorability near –45, recent local election setbacks, and internal Labour pressure for resignation that could accelerate departure before the 2029 deadline. Díaz-Canel sits at 7.8% amid Cuba’s deepening economic strains and reported U.S. sanctions, though centralized control limits near-term removal odds. Remaining candidates trade below 2% as their institutional positions, term structures, or coalition dynamics show fewer immediate catalysts for ouster before 2027. Trader pricing reflects these structural timelines and polling-driven volatility rather than guaranteed outcomes.

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