Venezuela leader end of 2026?

Traders currently price "Nicolás Maduro" at 80% for "Venezuela leader end of 2026?". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved down 0.6 points. Full distribution: Nicolás Maduro 80%, Delcy Rodríguez 13%, María Corina Machado 2%, No Head of State 1%. The market has traded $93.8M in total volume and resolves Dec 31, 2026. US military forces captured Nicolás Maduro on January 3, 2026, and removed him from Venezuela to face charges, shifting formal power to acting president Delcy Rodríguez under the constitutional line of succession and Supreme Court rulings. Chavista-aligned institutions, including the National Assembly led by Jorge Rodríguez and loyal security forces, have maintained continuity, with Delcy consolidating authority through limited reforms, sanctions relief, and diplomatic engagement with the United States focused on stability and energy sector cooperation. No new presidential elections have been scheduled despite opposition calls from figures such as María Corina Machado and Edmundo González, who face ongoing restrictions on political activity. Traders assign Maduro the highest probability due to the regime's institutional resilience and potential for his eventual return or recognition, while pricing opposition outcomes low amid the absence of verified electoral processes or broader power shifts by late 2026.

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