World Cup Winner
- Spain
- 58%
- —
- Argentina
- 42%
- +22.8
- England
- 0%
- −22.8
- France
- 0%
- −39.0
- Brazil
- 0%
- −6.4
- Germany
- 0%
- −3.9
- Portugal
- 0%
- −5.8
- Netherlands
- 0%
- −5.0
- Italy
- 0%
- —
- USA
- 0%
- −3.2
- Uruguay
- 0%
- —
- Mexico
- 0%
- −3.4
- Belgium
- 0%
- −2.1
- Colombia
- 0%
- −3.2
- Peru
- 0%
- —
- Japan
- 0%
- −1.0
- Norway
- 0%
- −5.9
- Canada
- 0%
- —
- Tunisia
- 0%
- —
- Ecuador
- 0%
- −0.5
- Paraguay
- 0%
- —
- New Zealand
- 0%
- —
- Australia
- 0%
- —
- Iran
- 0%
- —
- Uzbekistan
- 0%
- —
- South Korea
- 0%
- —
- Jordan
- 0%
- —
- Morocco
- 0%
- −2.8
- South Africa
- 0%
- —
- Senegal
- 0%
- −0.5
- Ivory Coast
- 0%
- —
- Ghana
- 0%
- —
- Egypt
- 0%
- —
- Algeria
- 0%
- —
- Cape Verde
- 0%
- —
- Qatar
- 0%
- —
- Saudi Arabia
- 0%
- —
- Scotland
- 0%
- —
- Switzerland
- 0%
- −1.6
- Austria
- 0%
- —
- Croatia
- 0%
- —
- Haiti
- 0%
- —
- Curaçao
- 0%
- —
- Panama
- 0%
- —
- Sweden
- 0%
- —
- Congo DR
- 0%
- —
- Iraq
- 0%
- —
- Bosnia-Herzegovina
- 0%
- —
- Czechia
- 0%
- —
- Turkiye
- 0%
- —
Traders currently price "Spain" at 58% for "World Cup Winner ". Full distribution: Spain 58%, Argentina 42%, England 0%, France 0%. The market has traded $4273.3M in total volume and resolves Jul 20, 2026. France leads the 2026 FIFA World Cup winner market at 18.4% implied probability after opening with a 3-1 victory over Senegal featuring multiple goals from Kylian Mbappé, while Spain sits at 13.8% following a surprising 0-0 draw against Cape Verde that tempered expectations from its Euro 2024-winning squad. England (12.8%) and defending champion Argentina (11.6%) remain tightly clustered behind them after strong early results, including England’s 4-2 win over Croatia and Argentina’s emphatic performances. The bunched pricing among the top five reflects the expanded 48-team format, comparable squad depth and star power across elite European sides, and limited separation in group-stage results so far. Portugal, Brazil, and Germany trail but stay within striking distance as traders weigh recent form, injuries, and knockout-stage matchups that remain weeks away.
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