0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by..?

Traders currently price "July 31" at 100% for "0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by..?". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved up 95.5 points. Full distribution: July 31 100%, August 31 23%, June 30 0%, July 7 0%. The market has traded $728K in total volume and resolves Jul 31, 2026. Recent developments in the Strait of Hormuz center on the aftermath of U.S.-Iran hostilities that began in late February 2026, which triggered a sharp reduction in commercial transits due to Iranian warnings, reported mine-laying, and de facto restrictions. Traffic fell to single digits or zero on multiple days through April and May, with only partial recovery following a June interim agreement that included provisions for resumed maritime access and U.S. mine-clearance operations projected to last up to six months. As of late June, daily averages hovered around 13 vessels—well below pre-conflict norms of roughly 100-plus—while naval escort discussions and territorial routing demands by Iranian forces continue to shape risk assessments. Key upcoming factors include the pace of mine removal, any new diplomatic or military signals between Washington and Tehran, and seasonal shipping patterns that could influence whether a complete daily shutdown occurs before the August 31 resolution window. Trader sentiment reflects ongoing uncertainty over sustained low volumes versus gradual normalization.

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