1 megaton meteor strike in 2026?

Traders currently price "No" at 99% for "1 megaton meteor strike in 2026?". The market has traded $116K in total volume and resolves Dec 31, 2026. Comprehensive monitoring by NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies and complementary surveys such as ATLAS and Pan-STARRS has identified no near-Earth objects on collision trajectories capable of delivering 1-megaton TNT equivalent energy through the end of 2026. Continuous radar, optical, and infrared tracking rules out bodies in the 50–100 meter range that could produce this yield, aligning with the historical impact frequency of roughly once every several hundred to a few thousand years. Trader consensus at 98.7% for “No” reflects this verified absence of risk plus the low likelihood of an undetected long-period comet arriving before year-end. The only plausible variables that could shift resolution are a last-minute discovery of an extremely faint object or a significant orbit revision for a known asteroid, though current observational density makes either scenario improbable.

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