2nd Largest Company end of August?
- Apple
- 85%
- +5.5
- Company A
- 50%
- —
- Company B
- 50%
- —
- Company C
- 50%
- —
- Company D
- 50%
- —
- Company E
- 50%
- —
- Company F
- 50%
- —
- Company G
- 50%
- —
- Company H
- 50%
- —
- Company I
- 50%
- —
- Company J
- 50%
- —
- Company K
- 50%
- —
- Company L
- 50%
- —
- Company M
- 50%
- —
- Company N
- 50%
- —
- Company O
- 50%
- —
- Company P
- 50%
- —
- Company Q
- 50%
- —
- Company R
- 50%
- —
- Company S
- 50%
- —
- Company T
- 50%
- —
- Other
- 50%
- —
- Alphabet
- 14%
- −3.0
- NVIDIA
- 2%
- —
- Microsoft
- 0%
- —
- Tesla
- 0%
- —
- Saudi Aramco
- 0%
- —
- Amazon
- 0%
- —
- Broadcom
- 0%
- —
Traders currently price "Apple" at 85% for "2nd Largest Company end of August?". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved up 5.5 points. Full distribution: Apple 85%, Company A 50%, Company B 50%, Company C 50%. The market has traded $326K in total volume and resolves Aug 31, 2026. Apple holds an 85% market-implied probability of finishing as the second-largest company by market capitalization at the end of August 2026, reflecting its current standing near $4.4 trillion amid recent gains that briefly pushed it past $5 trillion in late July. This positioning stems from sustained iPhone demand, AI integration efforts across hardware and services, and relative stability compared to more volatile AI-driven peers. Alphabet sits at 14.5% as the nearest alternative, supported by its search and cloud revenue but trailing in recent momentum. NVIDIA, Microsoft, and others register minimal odds below 2%, constrained by fluctuating chip cycles, slower growth trajectories, or competitive pressures in the large-language-model and semiconductor spaces. With only two weeks remaining, limited catalysts—such as earnings updates or macroeconomic shifts—are expected to alter the tight window before resolution, reinforcing trader consensus around Apple's entrenched valuation edge.
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