5kt meteor strike in 2026?

Traders currently price "No" at 70% for "5kt meteor strike in 2026?". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved down 3.0 points. The market has traded $312K in total volume and resolves Dec 31, 2026. No at 69.5% reflects the low base rate of 5-kiloton impacts, which occur far less than once per year on average according to NASA and JPL flux models for meter-scale objects. Ongoing surveys have identified no near-Earth asteroids on collision trajectories for 2026, with all tracked close approaches—such as 2026 JH2 and recent flybys—passing safely at distances exceeding lunar orbit. Small fireballs, including the March 2026 Cleveland event, have registered well below the energy threshold, and atmospheric monitoring through mid-August shows no confirmed strikes meeting resolution criteria. Uncertainties in undetected small objects remain, but refined orbital data and absence of alerts continue to support trader consensus favoring no event by year-end.

Odds sourced live from Polymarket, refreshed through the day. Prediction-market participation carries risk and may be restricted in your jurisdiction. Informational only — not investment advice.