ACA credits extended & House Winner 2026?

Traders currently price "Not Extended & Democratic Party" at 88% for "ACA credits extended & House Winner 2026?". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved down 0.5 points. Full distribution: Not Extended & Democratic Party 88%, Not Extended & Republican Party 12%, Extended & Democratic Party 0%, Extended & Republican Party 0%. The market has traded $404K in total volume and resolves Nov 3, 2026. The expiration of enhanced ACA premium tax credits at the end of 2025, following unsuccessful congressional efforts including a House-passed three-year extension that stalled in the Senate, has left the subsidies unextended into 2026 and driven the dominant "Not Extended" positioning in the combined market. Ongoing bipartisan compromise talks have not produced new legislation ahead of the November 2026 midterms. Trader consensus reflects this legislative gridlock, with the "Not Extended & Democratic Party" outcome at 87.5% and "Not Extended & Republican Party" at 11.5%. Democratic advantages in generic ballot polling averages and House race ratings, consistent with historical midterm patterns for the opposition party, support the higher implied probability for Democratic House control under the unextended scenario.

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