Andrew Tate released from custody by...?

Traders currently price "December 31" at 17% for "Andrew Tate released from custody by...?". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved down 5.5 points. Full distribution: December 31 17%, August 31 7%, July 31 0%. The market has traded $227K in total volume and resolves Dec 31, 2026. Andrew and Tristan Tate remain in U.S. federal custody in Miami following their July 18, 2026 arrest on a UK extradition request tied to dozens of rape, sexual assault, and trafficking charges. Prosecutors cite flight risk and community safety concerns, while defense counsel seeks bail with passport surrender and monitoring, highlighting solitary confinement conditions and prior compliance with Romanian judicial controls. A bail hearing originally set for August 13 was postponed to August 27, with Britain required to file its full extradition paperwork by September 16. Romanian proceedings on earlier human trafficking and related allegations continue separately without active detention measures. Trader sentiment centers on the timing of any U.S. release pending extradition resolution or further court rulings on detention.

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