Bank of England decision in September?

Traders currently price "No change" at 90% for "Bank of England decision in September?". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved down 1.0 points. Full distribution: No change 90%, 25 bps increase 9%, 25 bps decrease 1%, 50+ bps decrease 0%. The market has traded $147K in total volume and resolves Sep 17, 2026. The market-implied odds strongly favor no change at the Bank of England’s September 17 meeting, driven by the Monetary Policy Committee’s July 30 decision to hold Bank Rate at 3.75% on a 6-3 vote. Recent CPI data at 2.6% for June remains above the 2% target, with the Bank’s July Monetary Policy Report projecting a near-term rise to around 3.2% in Q4 2026 due to higher energy prices linked to Middle East developments. Upside inflation risks and loose labor market conditions support maintaining the current policy stance rather than easing or tightening further. The next key data releases and the September decision itself will shape any shifts in trader positioning around the market curve.

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