Brazil Annual Inflation 2026

Traders currently price "5.00-5.49%" at 55% for "Brazil Annual Inflation 2026". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved up 0.7 points. Full distribution: 5.00-5.49% 55%, 5.50-5.99% 24%, 4.50-4.99% 19%, 7.00%+ 2%. The market has traded $94K in total volume and resolves Jan 12, 2027. Brazil's central bank has revised its 2026 IPCA inflation projection upward to 5.2%, citing resilient economic activity, a tight labor market, and persistent pressures that have kept expectations unanchored above the 3% target. Recent Selic rate cuts totaling 100 basis points through August 2026, bringing the benchmark to 14.00%, reflect a cautious easing cycle even as the bank flagged upside risks and raised its Q4 2027 forecast to 3.7%. July 2026 IPCA readings near 4.4-4.5% year-over-year and successive Focus survey upward revisions have reinforced trader consensus around the 5.00-5.49% band, which now carries a 55.5% implied probability, while moderating momentum in core measures limits support for sub-5% outcomes.

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