China Annual GDP Growth 2026

Traders currently price "4.0–5.0%" at 89% for "China Annual GDP Growth 2026". Full distribution: 4.0–5.0% 89%, 5.0–6.0% 11%, 3.0–4.0% 1%, 8.0–9.0% 1%. The market has traded $875K in total volume and resolves Jan 31, 2026. Major international forecasts from the IMF (4.6%), World Bank (4.4%), OECD (4.5%), and others converge on China's 2026 GDP growth in the 4.4–4.7% range, aligning closely with the government's 4.5–5% target set at the March sessions. First-half 2026 data showed 4.7% expansion, though Q2 slowed to 4.3% amid softening domestic demand and a continued property sector adjustment. Offsetting factors include resilient exports, high-tech investment, and targeted policy support for infrastructure and new growth drivers. These elements position the 4.0–5.0% outcome as the dominant trader consensus, reflecting broad alignment between official goals, recent performance, and external projections amid structural headwinds.

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