Cuban regime falls in 2026?

Traders currently price "No" at 89% for "Cuban regime falls in 2026?". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved up 1.5 points. The market has traded $1.6M in total volume and resolves Dec 31, 2026. The Cuban Communist Party's continued hold on power despite intensified U.S. sanctions and a fuel blockade since January 2026 underpins the 88% trader consensus against regime collapse this year. Miguel Díaz-Canel's government has maintained control through security forces amid rolling blackouts, widespread shortages, and sporadic protests, while pursuing limited diplomatic engagement and prisoner releases to ease pressure. Historical precedent of surviving the 1990s Special Period, combined with no verified large-scale defections or successful opposition mobilization by mid-August, supports expectations that the regime will endure the current economic strain without falling. Scheduled events or further external actions could still alter trajectories before year-end.

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