Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

Traders currently price "Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez" at 22% for "Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved up 0.8 points. Full distribution: Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 22%, Gavin Newsom 15%, Jon Ossoff 15%, Kamala Harris 7%. The market has traded $1266.1M in total volume and resolves Nov 7, 2028. Trader consensus shows a fragmented field for the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination, with no candidate above 23 percent in an open contest more than two years before primaries. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez holds the top position on progressive visibility and fundraising strength, while Gavin Newsom and Jon Ossoff sit close behind on executive and Senate records that appeal to broader coalitions. The absence of a dominant frontrunner stems from post-2024 party rebuilding, varied ideological factions, and limited recent candidate commitments. Upcoming midterm results, formal announcements, and polling shifts among key voting blocs could quickly create separation, consistent with historical patterns where early positioning evolves substantially before Iowa and New Hampshire.

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