Presidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance
- 20%
- —
- Marco Rubio
- 14%
- —
- Gavin Newsom
- 12%
- —
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
- 7%
- −0.9
- Jon Ossoff
- 7%
- —
- Kamala Harris
- 4%
- —
- Josh Shapiro
- 3%
- —
- Pete Buttigieg
- 2%
- —
- Tucker Carlson
- 2%
- —
- Donald Trump
- 1%
- —
- Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson
- 1%
- —
- Donald Trump Jr.
- 1%
- —
- Ron DeSantis
- 1%
- —
- Thomas Massie
- 1%
- —
- Andy Beshear
- 1%
- —
- Wes Moore
- 1%
- —
- Greg Abbott
- 1%
- —
- Jamie Dimon
- 1%
- —
- Ro Khanna
- 1%
- —
- James Talarico
- 1%
- —
- Glenn Youngkin
- 1%
- —
- Stephen Smith
- 1%
- —
- JB Pritzker
- 1%
- —
- Tulsi Gabbard
- 1%
- —
- Elon Musk
- 1%
- —
- Ivanka Trump
- 1%
- —
- Michelle Obama
- 1%
- —
- Gretchen Whitmer
- 1%
- —
- Nikki Haley
- 1%
- —
- Tim Walz
- 1%
- —
- Vivek Ramaswamy
- 1%
- —
- Kim Kardashian
- 1%
- —
- Zohran Mamdani
- 1%
- —
- Eric Trump
- 1%
- —
- LeBron James
- 1%
- —
- Pete Hegseth
- 1%
- —
- Jalen Brunson
- 1%
- —
Traders currently price "JD Vance" at 20% for "Presidential Election Winner 2028". Full distribution: JD Vance 20%, Marco Rubio 14%, Gavin Newsom 12%, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 7%. The market has traded $652.8M in total volume and resolves Nov 7, 2028. Early positioning for the 2028 presidential nominees remains fluid more than two years before the primaries, with trader consensus reflecting the long timeline and uncertainty over both parties' fields. JD Vance benefits from his vice-presidential role in the current administration, while Marco Rubio's recent polling gains as secretary of state and Gavin Newsom's status as a leading Democratic figure keep the top three within a narrow band. The approaching 2026 midterms, potential candidate announcements after November, and hypothetical matchup polls showing shifts among Republicans and Democrats sustain the tight spread. Separation could emerge from midterm outcomes, economic conditions, or formal campaign launches that clarify frontrunners within each party.
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