Presidential Election Winner 2028

Traders currently price "JD Vance" at 23% for "Presidential Election Winner 2028". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved up 1.1 points. Full distribution: JD Vance 23%, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 14%, Marco Rubio 11%, Jon Ossoff 10%. The market has traded $692.1M in total volume and resolves Nov 7, 2028. JD Vance leads 2028 winner markets at 23.4% as vice president under the current administration, with traders pricing his early positioning and Republican base support ahead of Secretary of State Marco Rubio at 10.8%. On the Democratic side, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez holds 14.1% amid speculation around a potential bid and a fragmented primary field that also includes Jon Ossoff and Gavin Newsom. Recent polls show Rubio sometimes outperforming Vance in general-election hypotheticals while Democratic primary aggregates reflect no dominant consensus. With more than two years until nominations and the 2026 midterms ahead, the tight spread reflects uncertainty over candidate entry, polling shifts, endorsements, and primary dynamics that could widen gaps before formal contests begin.

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