Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

Traders currently price "Robert F. Kennedy Jr." at 49% for "Republican Presidential Nominee 2028". Full distribution: Robert F. Kennedy Jr. 49%, J.D. Vance 47%, Marco Rubio 20%, Tucker Carlson 3%. The market has traded $690.6M in total volume and resolves Nov 7, 2028. Trader consensus reflects a closely contested race for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination, with Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and J.D. Vance nearly tied as the frontrunners amid uncertainty over party consolidation. Vance's position draws from his vice-presidential role, Senate background, and alignment with core Trump policy priorities on trade, immigration, and deregulation. Kennedy Jr. maintains support through independent appeal, crossover messaging on public health and foreign affairs, and prior alignment with the Trump coalition. This narrow gap highlights competing paths to primary voters and delegates, where polling trends, endorsements from key figures, and early caucus or primary results could create separation before the convention. Lower-priced contenders like Marco Rubio trail significantly, underscoring the dominance of the top two in current trader assessments.

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