Next French Presidential Election

Traders currently price "Marine Le Pen" at 27% for "Next French Presidential Election". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved up 2.1 points. Full distribution: Marine Le Pen 27%, Édouard Philippe 27%, Jean-Luc Mélenchon 12%, Jordan Bardella 5%. The market has traded $110.6M in total volume and resolves Apr 30, 2027. Recent polls show Jordan Bardella of the National Rally leading first-round voting intentions near 30 percent ahead of the April 2027 contest, with Édouard Philippe and Jean-Luc Mélenchon clustered behind, reflecting RN strength on immigration and security alongside a fragmented center and divided left. Marine Le Pen’s pending appeal on her embezzlement conviction and potential office ban have shifted trader attention toward Bardella as the likely RN standard-bearer. Philippe’s positioning as a Macron-era successor faces headwinds from investigations and weak consolidation among centrist voters, while Mélenchon’s recent gains highlight left-wing mobilization. These crosscurrents, plus uncertainty over runoff pairings and coalition dynamics, keep probabilities closely matched among the top three and limit separation until clearer candidate fields and voter alignments emerge.

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