Ebola pandemic in 2026?

Traders currently price "No" at 96% for "Ebola pandemic in 2026?". The market has traded $692K in total volume and resolves Dec 31, 2026. Strong containment measures and the virus's requirement for direct contact with bodily fluids have kept the ongoing Bundibugyo Ebola outbreak localized primarily to eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo and limited areas of Uganda, with roughly 4,600 confirmed cases and over 2,000 deaths reported by mid-August 2026 despite its PHEIC designation. Official CDC and WHO assessments show no cases outside the region, extremely low risk of U.S. or sustained international transmission, and successful resolution of the Uganda cluster, aligning with historical patterns where Ebola has not achieved pandemic spread. Trader consensus at 96.5% for "No" reflects these epidemiological realities, though shifts could occur if urban transmission accelerates or the virus evolves higher transmissibility before year-end surveillance updates.

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