Farsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?

Traders currently price "September 30" at 4% for "Farsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved down 2.5 points. The market has traded $91K in total volume and resolves Sep 30, 2026. Escalating U.S.-Iran conflict since March 2026 has centered on Kharg Island, which handles roughly 90-92% of Iranian crude exports, and the Strait of Hormuz, through which about 20% of global oil and gas typically flows. U.S. strikes on military targets, naval blockades, and shipping disruptions have halted loadings at Kharg for over a week as of early August, lifting regional tanker rates, war-risk insurance premiums, and benchmark crude prices amid supply concerns. Despite troop deployments and seizure speculation, no occupation of Kharg, Hormuz, Hengam, or Farsi has occurred, with a June memorandum and subsequent fragile truce limiting escalation. Traders price in persistent Iranian control through the August 31 resolution as the primary barrier remains high-risk amphibious operations with broad economic fallout.

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