FDA approves Retatrutide this year?

Traders currently price "No" at 97% for "FDA approves Retatrutide this year?". The market has traded $579K in total volume and resolves Dec 31, 2026. Eli Lilly’s retatrutide, a triple agonist targeting GLP-1, GIP, and glucagon receptors, has delivered robust Phase 3 TRIUMPH trial results, including up to 28–30% mean weight loss at 80–104 weeks. However, the company has confirmed it will not submit a biologics license application until Q1 2027, citing the need for additional manufacturing and quality-control data. With FDA standard review typically requiring 10–12 months, approval in 2026 is effectively precluded. Trader consensus at 97.4% “No” reflects this clear regulatory timeline. The sole plausible upside scenarios involve an unforeseen accelerated submission or priority-review designation, both considered highly improbable given the explicit 2027 filing plan.

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