Fed Decision in September?

Traders currently price "No change" at 69% for "Fed Decision in September?". Full distribution: No change 69%, 25 bps increase 31%, 25 bps decrease 1%, 50+ bps increase 0%. The market has traded $47.9M in total volume and resolves Sep 16, 2026. Recent softer economic data has positioned no change as the leading outcome for the Federal Reserve’s September FOMC meeting. A weak July jobs report showing net payroll losses and a slight drop in the unemployment rate to 4.1%, paired with two consecutive cooler CPI prints including core inflation near 2.5%, reduced the probability of tightening from earlier levels above 50%. July FOMC minutes revealed three dissents favoring a hike amid broad-based price pressures and lingering energy effects from prior Middle East developments, yet incoming figures have given most officials room to maintain the 3.5–3.75% target range. Updated economic projections at the September 15–16 meeting remain a key focus for traders assessing whether inflation persistence or further labor softening will shift the balance.

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