Fed Decision in September?

Traders currently price "No change" at 57% for "Fed Decision in September?". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved up 1.0 points. Full distribution: No change 57%, 25 bps increase 37%, 25 bps decrease 4%, 50+ bps decrease 2%. The market has traded $2.1M in total volume and resolves Sep 16, 2026. Persistent inflation pressures, with May CPI reaching 4.2% year-over-year amid energy shocks tied to Middle East developments, combined with a resilient labor market showing 172,000 May job gains and 4.3% unemployment, have tilted trader consensus toward no change or modest tightening at the September 2026 FOMC meeting. Recent upward revisions to FOMC projections under the new chair, alongside solid payroll trends and core inflation readings near 2.9%, support the 56% probability for unchanged policy and 38.5% odds of a 25 basis point hike as the leading outcomes. Limited pricing for cuts reflects the elevated bar for easing until clearer disinflation emerges, with upcoming July data releases likely to influence any shifts in these implied probabilities.

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