How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

Traders currently price "0 (0 bps)" at 79% for "How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved up 1.5 points. Full distribution: 0 (0 bps) 79%, 1 (25 bps) 16%, 2 (50 bps) 3%, 3 (75 bps) 1%. The market has traded $41.3M in total volume and resolves Dec 31, 2026. Elevated inflation and a resilient labor market have driven trader consensus toward zero Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026 at 79.8% implied probability. The June FOMC meeting under new Chair Kevin Warsh held the fed funds target at 3.50%-3.75%, with updated projections lifting 2026 PCE inflation to 3.6% and showing nine officials favoring at least one hike by year-end. A blowout May jobs report reinforced the higher-for-longer stance, prompting economists to shift forecasts and markets to price out easing entirely for the balance of the year. Key upcoming catalysts include July and September FOMC decisions plus fresh CPI and employment data that could test whether inflation persistence justifies further tightening or opens a narrow path for a single 25-basis-point move.

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