How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

Traders currently price "0 (0 bps)" at 86% for "How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?". Full distribution: 0 (0 bps) 86%, 1 (25 bps) 10%, 2 (50 bps) 3%, 3 (75 bps) 1%. The market has traded $49.4M in total volume and resolves Dec 31, 2026. **Strong economic resilience and persistently elevated inflation have driven traders to price an 85.9% implied probability of zero Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026.** The FOMC has maintained the federal funds target range at 3.50%-3.75% since early in the year amid supply shocks from Middle East tensions that have kept energy prices elevated and pushed PCE inflation well above the 2% goal. Recent July data showed some moderation in consumer prices alongside softening retail sales, which has tempered near-term hike odds ahead of the September FOMC meeting, but the broader trajectory still points to policy remaining on hold. Labor market stability, with unemployment near 4.3% and solid job gains, further reduces the case for easing, aligning with economist surveys that overwhelmingly forecast no change through year-end. This market-implied path contrasts with earlier expectations of cuts and reflects skin-in-the-game consensus on delayed normalization until inflation pressures subside more convincingly.

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