What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?

Traders currently price "3.75%" at 42% for "What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved up 0.5 points. Full distribution: 3.75% 42%, 4.0% 32%, 4.25% 13%, 3.5% 8%. The market has traded $6.8M in total volume and resolves Dec 9, 2026. Recent U.S. economic data show resilient growth supported by AI-related investment and consumer spending, alongside a labor market with unemployment near 4.1 percent, while inflation remains elevated with core PCE readings around 3.3 percent amid energy price pressures linked to Middle East supply disruptions. The Federal Reserve has held the funds rate in the 3.50-3.75 percent range through mid-2026, though the June dot plot shifted higher and several participants have favored tightening. Trader consensus clusters around 3.75-4.0 percent for year-end 2026 because incoming inflation prints, employment reports, and any further geopolitical developments could support either a single hike or an extended pause, with limited separation until clearer signals emerge on whether price pressures moderate or persist into late 2026.

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