What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?
- 3.75%
- 33%
- −3.7
- 4.0%
- 26%
- −0.9
- 4.25%
- 20%
- +4.0
- 3.5%
- 10%
- —
- ≥ 4.5%
- 4%
- —
- 3.25%
- 2%
- —
- 3.0%
- 2%
- —
- 1.5%
- 1%
- —
- 2.75%
- 1%
- —
- 2.25%
- 1%
- —
- 2.5%
- 1%
- —
- 1.25
- 1%
- —
- ≤1.0%
- 0%
- —
- 1.75%
- 0%
- —
- 2.0%
- 0%
- —
Traders currently price "3.75%" at 33% for "What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved down 3.7 points. Full distribution: 3.75% 33%, 4.0% 26%, 4.25% 20%, 3.5% 10%. The market has traded $6.7M in total volume and resolves Dec 9, 2026. Recent hawkish updates to the FOMC's Summary of Economic Projections have anchored trader sentiment around the 3.75-4.0% range for the federal funds rate at year-end 2026. The June 17 dot plot lifted the median endpoint to 3.8% from 3.4% in March, with nine participants now seeing at least one hike this year amid May CPI inflation accelerating to 4.2% year-over-year—driven largely by energy costs tied to geopolitical tensions. The current 3.50-3.75% target range, held steady under new Chair Kevin Warsh, reflects a solid labor market and sticky core prices, prompting markets to price out earlier cut expectations. Key swing factors include the pace of disinflation in coming CPI and PCE releases, upcoming FOMC communications through September, and any shifts in Treasury yields or risk appetite that could alter the implied policy path.
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