Fed rate hike in 2026?

Traders currently price "Yes" at 55% for "Fed rate hike in 2026?". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved down 1.0 points. The market has traded $7.9M in total volume and resolves Dec 9, 2026. Elevated inflation remains the core driver behind the 54.5% market-implied odds of at least one 2026 Fed rate hike. Headline CPI held at 3.4% year-over-year in July while core PCE stayed near 3.3%, well above the 2% target, reflecting energy and supply pressures tied to the ongoing Middle East conflict. The July FOMC held the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75% on a 9–3 vote, with three officials dissenting in favor of immediate tightening, and recent minutes noted that further hikes could be warranted absent cooling price data. A resilient labor market and solid GDP growth have offset softening payrolls in July, leaving the path contested. Key near-term catalysts include the September 16 FOMC decision, the August CPI release on September 11, and incoming PCE figures that could shift trader consensus on whether policy needs to tighten further before year-end.

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