Fed rate hike in 2026?

Traders currently price "Yes" at 53% for "Fed rate hike in 2026?". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved down 5.0 points. The market has traded $3.6M in total volume and resolves Dec 9, 2026. Persistent inflation, recently hitting 4.2% CPI in May amid Middle East-related energy pressures, combined with solid May jobs gains, has shifted trader focus toward potential 2026 tightening at the current 3.50%-3.75% federal funds target. The June FOMC meeting under new Chair Kevin Warsh left rates unchanged but featured a dot plot where a majority of participants now project at least one hike by year-end, aligning with futures-implied odds near 66% for a 25-basis-point move. This balances against economist consensus favoring a hold through 2026 and the Fed's preference for data-dependent pauses. Key near-term catalysts include the July CPI release, upcoming employment reports, and the next FOMC projections that could clarify whether inflation trajectory or labor resilience tips the path toward hikes.

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