Fed rate hike by...?

Traders currently price "October Meeting" at 41% for "Fed rate hike by...?". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved down 1.0 points. Full distribution: October Meeting 41%, September Meeting 31%, April Meeting 0%, June Meeting 0%. The market has traded $2.3M in total volume and resolves Oct 29, 2026. Recent cooler inflation readings and a mixed July jobs report have tempered market-implied odds of a Federal Reserve rate hike at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting to around 28%, with the federal funds target range holding steady at 3.50%-3.75% following the 9-3 July decision. Persistent PCE inflation near 3.5%—well above the 2% target for over five years—along with three dissents favoring a 25-basis-point increase last month, keep hawkish pressure on the dot plot and policy path. Traders are pricing limited tightening for the balance of 2026 amid softening labor data and stable long-term inflation expectations, while the Jackson Hole Symposium and upcoming CPI releases remain key near-term catalysts that could shift consensus on the timing of any adjustment.

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