Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?

Traders currently price "No" at 83% for "Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?". The market has traded $463K in total volume and resolves Dec 31, 2026. Friedrich Merz heads a CDU/CSU-SPD coalition government formed after the February 2025 election, with the next federal vote scheduled for 2029. Despite economic headwinds, low personal approval ratings around 19 percent, and coalition frictions over reforms, the government has advanced measures on health, labor, and defense policy through mid-2026. Internal CDU discussions of a possible leadership change have surfaced ahead of September state elections where the AfD could gain ground, yet party figures continue to back Merz and no procedural steps toward a snap election or resignation have materialized. These factors support trader consensus that structural barriers and the absence of immediate triggers make an exit before 2027 unlikely.

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