Highest temperature in Beijing on August 15?
- 29°C
- 100%
- +98.5
- 27°C or below
- 0%
- —
- 28°C
- 0%
- −0.5
- 30°C
- 0%
- −9.4
- 31°C
- 0%
- −36.4
- 32°C
- 0%
- −39.5
- 33°C
- 0%
- −9.4
- 34°C
- 0%
- −2.5
- 35°C
- 0%
- —
- 36°C
- 0%
- —
- 37°C or higher
- 0%
- —
Traders currently price "29°C" at 100% for "Highest temperature in Beijing on August 15?". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved up 98.5 points. Full distribution: 29°C 100%, 27°C or below 0%, 28°C 0%, 30°C 0%. The market has traded $92K in total volume and resolves Aug 15, 2026. Forecasts from agencies including the Hong Kong Observatory and Met Office indicate Beijing will reach a daily high near 29–30°C on August 15 amid mid-August seasonal cooling and expected thundershowers. Cloud cover and precipitation reduce solar heating and promote evaporative cooling, keeping afternoon temperatures from climbing further in line with climatological averages of 29–31°C for the period. Trader consensus at 29°C reflects convergence of multiple model runs and official guidance, with resolution tied to verified maximum observations. Clearer skies or delayed storm activity could allow modest additional warming toward 31°C, though current atmospheric patterns make such shifts unlikely before resolution.
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