Highest temperature in Hong Kong on August 14?

Traders currently price "30°C" at 100% for "Highest temperature in Hong Kong on August 14?". Full distribution: 30°C 100%, 28°C 0%, 26°C or below 0%, 27°C 0%. The market has traded $236K in total volume and resolves Aug 14, 2026. Official observations from the Hong Kong Observatory confirm a daily maximum of 30°C on August 14, 2026, anchoring trader consensus at 99.9% implied probability for that outcome. Surface station data, including urban and airport sites, recorded no higher reading amid typical late-summer subtropical conditions with limited daytime heating from cloud cover and sea breezes. Historical August maxima average near 31°C, yet this day’s stable marine influence kept temperatures capped. Minor odds on adjacent values reflect residual uncertainty over exact station selection or rounding conventions before final verification, though post-event data releases make large revisions improbable.

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