Highest temperature in Hong Kong on August 15?

Traders currently price "31°C" at 100% for "Highest temperature in Hong Kong on August 15?". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved up 56.4 points. Full distribution: 31°C 100%, 32°C 0%, 33°C 0%, 27°C or below 0%. The market has traded $254K in total volume and resolves Aug 15, 2026. Official observations from the Hong Kong Observatory show the daily maximum temperature reached 31°C on August 15, with afternoon readings stabilizing near that level under typical summer conditions of high humidity and light winds. This aligns with climatological norms for mid-August, when mean highs hover around 31–32°C, and current model consensus indicates no late-day surge capable of pushing readings higher. The market’s 99.9% implied probability for 31°C reflects this confirmed trajectory and the low likelihood of measurement revisions or unforecasted warming. A sudden shift in local wind patterns or delayed peak could theoretically alter the final tally, though such changes are rare once afternoon observations are recorded.

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