Highest temperature in London on August 15?
- 27°C
- 74%
- +38.0
- 26°C
- 17%
- −18.0
- 28°C
- 10%
- −2.5
- 25°C
- 3%
- −9.0
- 29°C
- 1%
- −5.3
- 30°C or higher
- 0%
- −1.3
- 20°C or below
- 0%
- —
- 21°C
- 0%
- —
- 22°C
- 0%
- —
- 23°C
- 0%
- −0.7
- 24°C
- 0%
- −3.5
Traders currently price "27°C" at 74% for "Highest temperature in London on August 15?". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved up 38.0 points. Full distribution: 27°C 74%, 26°C 17%, 28°C 10%, 25°C 3%. The market has traded $105K in total volume and resolves Aug 15, 2026. Forecast models from the Met Office and other agencies indicate London will reach a daytime maximum near 27–28°C on August 15 under high pressure, with sunny intervals, hazy sunshine, and light winds allowing modest warming from a southeasterly flow. This pattern aligns with the broader 2026 UK summer warmth, already tracking well above the 1991–2020 average. Traders have placed the strongest implied probability on 27°C because official station readings (typically Heathrow or similar) often fall just short of headline forecast highs due to urban heat-island effects, timing of peak insolation, and slight model spread. Recent model runs show limited further intensification risk, keeping outcomes above 28°C at low probability while cooler readings remain possible only with unexpected cloud cover. Updated observations and any final Met Office verification will determine resolution.
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