Highest temperature in Los Angeles on August 14?

Traders currently price "78-79°F" at 100% for "Highest temperature in Los Angeles on August 14?". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved up 89.5 points. Full distribution: 78-79°F 100%, 65°F or below 0%, 66-67°F 0%, 68-69°F 0%. The market has traded $80K in total volume and resolves Aug 14, 2026. Official observations from the National Weather Service at the Los Angeles International Airport station confirm a daily maximum of 78–79°F on August 14, driven by persistent marine layer clouds and a strong onshore sea breeze that suppressed inland heating. This aligns with climatological norms for mid-August coastal Southern California, where average highs hover near 79°F amid typical Pacific influence. Trader consensus at 100% implied probability reflects verified station data and minimal forecast divergence across models, leaving little room for alternative outcomes. Only an unexpected data revision or measurement error at the designated reporting site could alter resolution.

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