Highest temperature in Madrid on August 15?
- 31°C
- 46%
- +33.5
- 30°C or below
- 26%
- +22.7
- 32°C
- 18%
- −17.5
- 33°C
- 10%
- −7.5
- 34°C
- 9%
- −8.0
- 35°C
- 1%
- −8.8
- 36°C
- 0%
- −3.1
- 37°C
- 0%
- —
- 38°C
- 0%
- —
- 39°C
- 0%
- —
- 40°C or higher
- 0%
- —
Traders currently price "31°C" at 46% for "Highest temperature in Madrid on August 15?". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved up 33.5 points. Full distribution: 31°C 46%, 30°C or below 26%, 32°C 18%, 33°C 10%. The market has traded $116K in total volume and resolves Aug 15, 2026. Recent forecasts from sources like the BBC and timeanddate indicate Madrid highs around 33–34°C (roughly 91–93°F) on August 15, moderated by light rain showers, increasing cloud cover, and lighter winds that limit peak solar heating compared to the 37–38°C readings recorded on August 13–14. These conditions align with the market's emphasis on 31°C (45% implied probability) and 30°C or below (25.9%), as numerical weather models show a brief respite from the ongoing summer heat dome. Historical August averages near 30–32°C highs provide context, while any late-day clearing or model shifts could still push readings toward 32–33°C. Traders are weighting the latest observational data and short-term forecast updates most heavily ahead of official AEMET confirmation.
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