Highest temperature in NYC on August 14?

Traders currently price "86-87°F" at 100% for "Highest temperature in NYC on August 14?". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved up 34.0 points. Full distribution: 86-87°F 100%, 81°F or below 0%, 82-83°F 0%, 84-85°F 0%. The market has traded $79K in total volume and resolves Aug 14, 2026. National Weather Service forecasts and major model guidance converged on a peak temperature in the mid- to upper 80s at Central Park for August 14, modestly above the 83°F climatological normal, with partly cloudy skies, light winds, and an Atlantic sea breeze moderating afternoon heating. Official observations and short-range guidance reinforced this range, underpinning the market’s 100% implied probability on 86–87°F as traders aligned with the scientific consensus. Cloud-cover variability or unexpected late-day clearing could realistically push the official high toward 88–89°F, while stronger onshore flow or thicker cloud decks would favor the lower end of the 80s.

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