Highest temperature in Paris on August 15?
- 32°C
- 43%
- +36.1
- 31°C
- 28%
- +25.6
- 33°C
- 24%
- −22.0
- 30°C or below
- 12%
- +11.1
- 34°C
- 3%
- −32.0
- 35°C
- 1%
- −13.5
- 36°C
- 1%
- −0.9
- 37°C
- 0%
- —
- 38°C
- 0%
- —
- 39°C
- 0%
- —
- 40°C or higher
- 0%
- —
Traders currently price "32°C" at 43% for "Highest temperature in Paris on August 15?". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved up 36.1 points. Full distribution: 32°C 43%, 31°C 28%, 33°C 24%, 30°C or below 12%. The market has traded $138K in total volume and resolves Aug 15, 2026. Recent ensemble forecasts from meteorological agencies indicate a daytime maximum near 32°C in Paris on August 15, driven by moderating Atlantic flow, increased cloud cover, and afternoon thunderstorm potential that limits peak solar heating. This aligns with model consensus showing temperatures 5–7°C above the August climatological average of 25–26°C yet below the extreme values recorded during earlier summer heatwaves. Updated runs emphasize timing of any convective activity as the key uncertainty, with slight downward revisions in some guidance supporting the market’s heavy weighting toward 31–33°C outcomes over higher thresholds. Traders are incorporating the latest observational trends and short-range model agreement ahead of final Météo-France verification.
Odds sourced live from Polymarket, refreshed through the day. Prediction-market participation carries risk and may be restricted in your jurisdiction. Informational only — not investment advice.