Highest temperature in Seattle on August 14?

Traders currently price "76-77°F" at 100% for "Highest temperature in Seattle on August 14?". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved up 81.5 points. Full distribution: 76-77°F 100%, 73°F or below 0%, 74-75°F 0%, 78-79°F 0%. The market has traded $50K in total volume and resolves Aug 14, 2026. Official measurements from Seattle-Tacoma International Airport (KSEA) and surrounding stations recorded a daily maximum of 76–77°F on August 14, 2026, under stable high-pressure systems typical for mid-August in the Pacific Northwest. This aligns closely with climatological norms, where Seattle’s average August highs range from 75–79°F based on long-term NOAA data, with minimal influence from marine air or cloud cover that day. Trader consensus at 100% on the 76–77°F outcome reflects post-event verification of these observations rather than forecasts. Realistic challenges remain limited to rare station calibration issues or boundary disputes over exact reporting criteria, though multi-station agreement makes such revisions improbable before final resolution.

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