Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 15?

Traders currently price "28°C" at 100% for "Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 15?". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved up 75.9 points. Full distribution: 28°C 100%, 24°C or below 0%, 25°C 0%, 26°C 0%. The market has traded $110K in total volume and resolves Aug 15, 2026. Recent observations from the Korea Meteorological Administration confirm that the daily maximum temperature at Incheon reached precisely 28°C amid widespread showers and high humidity on August 15, 2026, aligning with model consensus for suppressed afternoon heating due to persistent cloud cover and precipitation. This outcome matches climatological expectations for mid-August under a weakening heatwave regime, where typical highs range 30–32°C but rain-cooled boundary layers often cap readings near 28°C. Trader consensus reflects the strength of real-time station data and limited upside potential from remaining daylight hours, though minor revisions could occur if post-event quality control adjusts the official peak or if localized urban heat island effects alter Incheon readings relative to Seoul proper.

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