Highest temperature in Shanghai on August 15?

Traders currently price "31°C" at 100% for "Highest temperature in Shanghai on August 15?". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved up 84.5 points. Full distribution: 31°C 100%, 25°C or below 0%, 26°C 0%, 27°C 0%. The market has traded $158K in total volume and resolves Aug 15, 2026. Traders have converged on 31°C as the near-certain highest temperature in Shanghai on August 15 because official forecasts from regional meteorological services show a peak near 29–31°C under persistent overcast skies, high humidity, and light winds that limit daytime heating. These conditions align with recent model runs indicating minimal potential for stronger insolation or clearing that would push readings above 32°C. The current synoptic pattern has suppressed temperatures below the historical August baseline of 32–34°C at Shanghai stations. Real-time observations from the China Meteorological Administration will confirm the daily maximum and resolve the market. A late-day clearing or localized heat island effect could still nudge the official reading higher, though such shifts appear unlikely given the entrenched moisture and weak steering flow.

Odds sourced live from Polymarket, refreshed through the day. Prediction-market participation carries risk and may be restricted in your jurisdiction. Informational only — not investment advice.