Highest temperature in Singapore on August 15?

Traders currently price "33°C" at 100% for "Highest temperature in Singapore on August 15?". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved up 76.4 points. Full distribution: 33°C 100%, 28°C or below 0%, 29°C 0%, 30°C 0%. The market has traded $71K in total volume and resolves Aug 15, 2026. Singapore's Meteorological Service Singapore and National Environment Agency forecast a daytime maximum of 32–33°C for August 15 under Southwest Monsoon conditions, with early showers yielding to mostly sunny skies, moderate humidity, and typical wind patterns that limit further intensification. This aligns with the first-half August drier trend favoring maxima of 33–34°C, exceeding the long-term monthly average high near 31–32°C. Trader consensus at 99.9% implied probability for 33°C reflects model agreement and real-time observational trends from official stations. An unusually strong convective outbreak or persistent cloud cover could cap readings at 32°C or below, while clearer, drier air might push toward 34°C, though both remain low-probability outcomes given current steering and instability patterns.

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