Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 15?
- 29°C
- 100%
- +74.5
- 24°C or below
- 0%
- —
- 25°C
- 0%
- —
- 26°C
- 0%
- —
- 27°C
- 0%
- −1.5
- 28°C
- 0%
- −6.5
- 30°C
- 0%
- −34.0
- 31°C
- 0%
- −24.4
- 32°C
- 0%
- −10.0
- 33°C
- 0%
- −2.4
- 34°C or higher
- 0%
- −0.8
Traders currently price "29°C" at 100% for "Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 15?". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved up 74.5 points. Full distribution: 29°C 100%, 24°C or below 0%, 25°C 0%, 26°C 0%. The market has traded $83K in total volume and resolves Aug 15, 2026. Recent Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts project a Tokyo high of exactly 29°C on August 15 under stable late-summer conditions dominated by the subtropical Pacific high, with light winds, high humidity, and scattered showers limiting afternoon heating. AccuWeather and other models align closely on this range, consistent with historical August climatology and current observational data showing no incoming fronts or typhoon influences to drive deviations. This model consensus underpins the market's near-100% implied probability on 29°C, reflecting trader weighting of these predictable atmospheric patterns. A sudden shift in steering flow or unforecasted convective activity could still push readings outside this narrow band before official station recording.
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