Highest temperature in Wellington on August 15?

Traders currently price "13°C" at 100% for "Highest temperature in Wellington on August 15?". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved up 87.9 points. Full distribution: 13°C 100%, 9°C or below 0%, 10°C 0%, 11°C 0%. The market has traded $83K in total volume and resolves Aug 15, 2026. Recent MetService guidance and supporting ensemble models indicate a daytime maximum near 13°C for Wellington on August 15, driven by strong southerly winds advecting cool polar maritime air mass and persistent low cloud that restricts surface heating. This aligns with typical mid-winter climatology for the region, where average August highs hover around 12–14°C. Trader consensus at 100% implied probability for 13°C reflects this tight forecast range and the limited time remaining before official observations are recorded. A late northerly wind shift or unexpected clearing that enhances solar insolation could realistically push readings to 14°C or above, while heavier showers or stronger southerlies would favor a lower peak.

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