How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
- 4.5%
- 100%
- +11.2
- 4.6%
- 100%
- +4.9
- 4.4%
- 100%
- −1.5
- 4.3%
- 100%
- +1.7
- 4.8%
- 63%
- —
- 5.0%
- 32%
- +7.5
- 5.2%
- 15%
- —
- 5.5%
- 7%
- —
- 5.7%
- 5%
- —
- 6.0%
- 4%
- —
Traders currently price "4.5%" at 100% for "How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved up 11.2 points. Full distribution: 4.5% 100%, 4.6% 100%, 4.4% 100%, 4.3% 100%. The market has traded $285K in total volume and resolves Dec 31, 2026. Recent elevations in the 10-year Treasury yield near 4.69% reflect sticky core PCE inflation around 3.3%, resilient labor market data, and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East that have lifted oil prices and inflation expectations. Market-implied odds price in a higher path for yields through 2026, driven by fiscal deficit concerns expanding term premiums and reduced prospects for near-term Federal Reserve easing. Traders focus on upcoming CPI and PCE releases alongside FOMC communications as key catalysts that could test levels above 4.8% or 5.0% before 2027, while any sharper growth deceleration remains the primary factor that could cap upside.
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