How high will inflation get in 2026?

Traders currently price "Above 3%" at 100% for "How high will inflation get in 2026?". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved up 1.5 points. Full distribution: Above 3% 100%, Above 4% 100%, Above 3.5% 100%, Above 4.5% 18%. The market has traded $1.4M in total volume and resolves Dec 31, 2026. Recent July 2026 CPI data showed headline inflation easing to 3.4% year-over-year from 3.5% in June, with core at 2.5%, as energy price pressures from the Iran conflict continued to moderate. This follows a 2026 peak of 4.2% in May, leaving market-implied odds favoring limited further upside in the annual rate through year-end. FOMC June projections incorporated upward revisions to core PCE for 2026 amid persistent shelter and service costs, while upcoming August CPI release and September FOMC meeting represent key near-term catalysts. Traders are pricing in subdued risks of renewed acceleration above 4.5%, reflecting the current disinflation trajectory and labor market conditions.

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