How high will US unemployment go in 2026?

Traders currently price "5.0%" at 10% for "How high will US unemployment go in 2026?". Full distribution: 5.0% 10%, 5.5% 8%, 7.0% 7%, 6.0% 7%. The market has traded $481K in total volume and resolves Dec 31, 2026. Recent U.S. labor data underscore softening momentum in the job market, with nonfarm payrolls contracting by 23,000 in July 2026 after downward revisions to prior months and the unemployment rate easing to 4.1% primarily due to a drop in labor-force participation to 61.4%. The Federal Reserve has held the federal funds rate steady near 3.50–3.75% amid persistent core inflation above its 2% target and elevated uncertainty from tariffs and AI-driven productivity shifts, keeping policy restrictive relative to a labor market that has shifted toward a low-hire, low-fire equilibrium. Key near-term catalysts include the September employment report, upcoming CPI and PCE releases, and the next FOMC meeting, which will shape trader views on whether unemployment remains anchored near current levels or rises toward the 4.4% median projected in earlier Fed summaries for year-end 2026.

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