How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?

Traders currently price "4.0%" at 100% for "How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?". Full distribution: 4.0% 100%, 3.9% 12%, 3.6% 6%, 3.5% 5%. The market has traded $225K in total volume and resolves Dec 31, 2026. Recent trading in 10-year Treasury yields near 4.65-4.69% reflects trader expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain a restrictive policy stance through year-end 2026 amid core PCE inflation around 3% and resilient labor data. Market-implied odds favor the yield reaching a low of 4.0% before 2027 but assign lower probability to sub-3.9% levels, driven by fiscal deficit concerns expanding term premium and reduced odds of rate cuts. Key near-term catalysts include upcoming CPI and PCE releases, FOMC minutes, and any escalation in energy prices that could reinforce hawkish repricing in fed funds futures.

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