How many 7.0 or above earthquakes in 2026?
- 14–16
- 43%
- +1.0
- 17–19
- 28%
- −1.0
- 11–13
- 19%
- −0.5
- 20+
- 7%
- −3.5
- 8–10
- 1%
- —
- <5
- 0%
- —
- 5–7
- 0%
- —
Traders currently price "14–16" at 43% for "How many 7.0 or above earthquakes in 2026?". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved up 1.0 points. Full distribution: 14–16 43%, 17–19 28%, 11–13 19%, 20+ 7%. The market has traded $1.4M in total volume and resolves Dec 31, 2026. Trader consensus in the 2026 M7.0+ earthquake market centers on the 14–16 range at 44% implied probability, reflecting the USGS long-term average of roughly 15–18 such events per year amid normal year-to-year variability driven by tectonic plate interactions along subduction zones. With 10 confirmed M7.0+ quakes through mid-August—including a 7.8 in the Philippines, dual 7.5 and 7.2 events in Venezuela, and the recent 7.4 near Colombia—current activity aligns with historical patterns concentrated in the Pacific Ring of Fire rather than signaling elevated rates. Remaining months introduce forecast uncertainty, as additional events depend on stress accumulation along major faults, though no anomalous seismic indicators suggest deviation from the baseline.
Odds sourced live from Polymarket, refreshed through the day. Prediction-market participation carries risk and may be restricted in your jurisdiction. Informational only — not investment advice.