How many cities will Waymo operate in by December 31?

Traders currently price "16-19" at 61% for "How many cities will Waymo operate in by December 31?". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved up 9.0 points. Full distribution: 16-19 61%, 12-15 25%, 20-23 6%, <12 4%. The market has traded $49K in total volume and resolves Dec 31, 2026. Waymo’s accelerated commercial rollout in 2026 drives the market’s 60.5% probability on 16-19 cities by year-end. After reaching 10 operational metro areas by February with simultaneous launches in Dallas, Houston, San Antonio, and Orlando, the company expanded testing and service footprints across Sun Belt and emerging northern markets, including Denver, Las Vegas, San Diego, and Minneapolis. Official statements emphasize scaling toward 20+ cities through mapped operations, regulatory approvals, and fleet growth, though timelines can shift due to weather challenges in new regions and permitting hurdles. Traders appear to weigh this momentum against the remaining four-plus months, favoring the 16-19 range while assigning lower odds to faster or slower outcomes.

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